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Body colour (especially presence of orange abdominal side patches) is a bit variable but the dusting colour and colour of the humeral callus is fairly stable. I would agree that this doesn't like bombylans or puberula ... things like gnava/atricosta/laxifrons are very rare (laxifrons only occurs around Brown-tail moth). My guess would be lucorum too ... based on look & rarity :)

But Carcelia really do need checking under a microscope because they are not the easiest genus ;)